My Anticipation for a Great Human Future
Humans who have their deepest needs and desires met, find no reason to do harm.
My goal is to predict human behaviour. Why?
Striving to predict human behaviour leads to an incrementally better understanding of the human mind. This allows us to discover new scientific knowledge. We can then choose to build better technological solutions with the sole goal to fulfil the deepest desires of human nature. This augments the human mind and results in a belief in fairness, a belief in peace and cooperation, and a belief in a world of harmony between humans and nature. This results in no bad humans, no nuclear war, no climate disaster, no communicable diseases, no non-communicable diseases, not even death, and no inequality.
Notes & reasoning
My goal is to predict human behaviour.
To predict human behaviour we have to predict the human mind. To predict we have to understand. To predict the human mind we have to understand the human mind.
What makes a human is its mind. Without it, there would be no light and no life. Without it, humans' most fundamental need, to survive, could not be met.
Without a mind, there is no human; while without any other part of the human, there is still a human. We must focus on the human mind.
The human mind projects an internal subjective model onto an external objective world. That’s the world we experience. What the mind believes is what the mind perceives, and every action derives from it. Action is what we call behaviour.
Humans have evolved to survive. The capacity to believe is instrumental for human survival. As is every other characteristic of the human. Biological life forms have such characteristics.
Biological evolution is slow, including the evolution of the human mind. And so beliefs were bound to change slowly. This is threatening since a mind that cannot process information critical for its survival might die sooner or later.
Luckily, evolution managed to find a solution to that by externalising beliefs. Actions are the expression of the human mind driven by the need to survive.
Everything humans created is an expression of the human mind, its beliefs. Belief-driven creations are the evolution of beliefs and allow the human mind to perceive the world in new ways. Believe in new things. Gather new knowledge.
Humans have externalised the evolution of their beliefs, from their own brains into the world. Creations are the embodiment of the most advanced forms of the beliefs of the human mind.
Since beliefs are the driver of action and allow humans to survive, the next step of evolution is for humans to embrace their own creations. To fully trust these more evolved beliefs through which we look at the world.
In evolution, less evolved things die out since they aren’t able to compete for resources. The same happens to beliefs. The human as we know him today will be no more, and the mind with the beliefs that perceive the world and drive action will be external from the human brain.
It is not as dramatic as it sounds since this will feel natural for those that follow this process and embrace the natural way of life and evolution.
In brief, humans are driven by their minds and minds evolve too. This evolution towards a more evolved mind is driven by the needs to survive of humans of today and tomorrow. And that is the only thing we can be sure of about the future.
The mind today
Where do our beliefs come from today, that lead us to taking action? Or in other words, what restricts us in our actions today? What restricts us to not see further than our reality? What beliefs shape our mind?
At the highest level beliefs and desires come from information. The information in human minds comes from multiple sources and comes in different “shapes and forms”.
Before we are born, some needs are already encoded in the DNA. They give birth to beliefs that are inevitable unless the DNA is changed. For instance, I feel hungry so I believe I should eat. Needs are passed on to us through evolution and give life to feelings in the mind. They are physiological and psychological and usually have a state of homeostasis.
Other needs are added to our minds throughout our lives and give life to more variable beliefs.
We experience formal education through parents and teachers, textbooks, books, stories, and everything else that is used to teach us. There are random experiences, people we have met, an ad we have seen, a job we have practiced, a team we joined, discussions we have had, food we have tasted, music we have heard, and flowers we have smelled, in the physical world. Besides the physical world, we also interact with the digital world. These experiences are very different for now but remain experiences adding to our beliefs. Finally, there are beliefs from rules of law or tradition, culture, and customs from within families, neighborhoods, villages, cities, countries, continents, or worlds.
Money is what gives us access to these different beliefs, different characteristics of the mind. And what is worth a lot of money are the beliefs/characteristics that the human mind believes to be useful for its own survival.
These are all materialized beliefs that have been externalized from the human mind in the past. They have evolved over time and some exist for longer than individual human minds.
In a big way, some human minds are at their mercy. It’s observable in human action that goes against basic physiological and psychological needs. Bad food, smoking, no exercise, less sex, no kids, or isolation through excessive scrolling or screen time, antisocial behavior or lack of understanding of each other.
The beliefs and change of beliefs of the mind originated and still come from things that people needed and wanted. And that will continue; wants and needs drive the evolution of the mind.
The mind of humanity meets the needs of some individual human minds, but isn’t incentivized to change and evolve for the benefit of all human minds. Plus, no one understands the mind of humanity in its entirety and knows what action would be the best to take to find a state of homeostasis within it.
The needs today
Homeostasis is the process by which a body maintains a stable internal environment, even when external conditions change significantly. Human actions used to be in harmony with homeostasis in a psychological or physiological way. But that is no more, some characteristics of the “bigger mind of humanity” also have needs and sometimes are more powerful than the needs of individual minds. This creates misalignment and results in actions that are often less than optimal for the human mind or for the bigger mind of humanity.
The needs of the bigger mind of humanity and all the things it has created could be described as avoiding: bad humans, nuclear war, climate change, communicable diseases, all non-communicable diseases, even death, inequality/unfairness.
These must be and will be the drivers for the evolution of the bigger mind and will necessitate some kind of change in the beliefs of individual human minds.
In fact, the human mind is the center and highest leverage point to meet the needs of the bigger mind. A re-design of sorts in which the human mind and its beliefs favor peace, fairness, and cooperation, and a world of harmony between humans and humans and nature needs to happen.
Building technology is the key for designing this human mind.
The future of the bigger mind of humanity
Minds can change, and humans can act. Humans can take actions to change minds. We can change the bigger mind too, by building technology and creating change that favours the flourishing of the human mind's needs and wants and so its beliefs. It goes back to understanding and listening to what people truly desire and are longing for.
The thesis here is that humans who have their deepest needs and desires met have no reasons to do bad things to other humans or nature. As humanity understands itself as a species better, we are able to better fulfil the needs we have. And it seems that this leads to more favourable behaviours towards other humans and nature. And predicting human behaviour is a good goal that drives us to further and further understand humans.
The deepest desires of human nature are what we must build technology for, and nothing else.
The deepest desires of human nature originate from the desire to survive and whatever is needed for that. There are existing theories that try to model absolute truths for human desires. However, the truth is that some desires have been permanent while others come and go rather quickly. Some of the most fundamental and deepest desires that seem to come back most of the time in models are those described in Maslow’s work:
Physiological Needs: At the most basic level, humans need air, water, food, and shelter to survive. These needs are essential and typically take precedence over all others when they're not met.
Safety and Security: Once basic survival needs are met, people seek safety and security. This includes physical safety, health, and financial security, among others.
Love and Belonging: Humans are inherently social creatures. The need for love, affection, and a sense of belonging, whether through familial ties, friendships, or romantic relationships, has always been paramount. The desire to be a part of a community or group is deeply rooted in our nature.
Esteem: This encompasses the need for self-respect and the respect of others. People have an inherent desire for recognition, validation, and a sense of value in their communities.
Self-Actualization: Proposed by Abraham Maslow in his hierarchy of needs, this represents the desire to realize one's potential and seek personal growth, self-fulfilment, and the realization of personal talents and potentialities.
Purpose and Meaning: Beyond the physiological and emotional needs, humans have always sought meaning and purpose in life, often through spiritual, religious, or philosophical explorations.
Understanding and Knowledge: Humans are curious by nature. The desire to learn, understand, and make sense of the world around us has been a driving force behind many of our greatest discoveries and achievements.
Autonomy: The desire for independence, freedom, and the ability to make choices for oneself has been a consistent human want.
Aesthetic Needs: This encompasses the appreciation and search for beauty, balance, and form. It's the reason humans have been creating art, music, and literature for millennia.
Transcendence: Going beyond Maslow's original hierarchy, some later interpretations include the need to help others achieve self-actualization and to connect to something greater than oneself.
How these desires play out in each human being is a complex interplay of genetics, environment, culture, personal experiences, and conscious choices, as I’ve discussed previously. What can be said however is that if more of these desires were met for more people then we would live in a more harmonious world of humans and nature.
Promising science & technology for meeting human desires
These have to be explored as we go, since people make new scientific discoveries and create new technologies continuously. We can however speculate based on the information that we have and the state of science and technology today. This gives us a feeling of what’s possible. What actually happens will depend on us humans our actions and what we choose to design. Some examples:
Physiological Needs:
Scientific Breakthrough: Human Genome Project, CRISPR/Cas9, Synthetic Biology.
Potential Technologies: Personalized medicine based on genetic makeup, gene therapies to treat genetic disorders, engineered organisms for enhanced food and biofuel production.
Safety and Security:
Scientific Breakthrough: Deep Learning and AI, Quantum Supremacy.
Potential Technologies: Advanced AI-driven security systems, efficient disaster response mechanisms, quantum encryption for ultra-secure communication.
Love and Belonging:
Scientific Breakthrough: Advancements in neuroscience, AI-driven communication platforms.
Potential Technologies: Virtual reality platforms for deeper social connection, AI-driven mental health tools for relationship counselling and therapy.
Esteem:
Scientific Breakthrough: AI-driven personalized learning, Neural interfaces.
Potential Technologies: Personalized education platforms for skill development, brain-computer interfaces for enhanced cognitive abilities.
Self-Actualization:
Scientific Breakthrough: Therapeutic use of psychedelics, Deep Learning in AI.
Potential Technologies: Guided therapeutic sessions for personal growth, AI-driven self-improvement and self-awareness tools.
Purpose and Meaning:
Scientific Breakthrough: Neuroscience insights into consciousness and cognition.
Potential Technologies: Meditation and mindfulness tools augmented by neurofeedback, platforms for finding and connecting with purpose-driven projects.
Understanding and Knowledge:
Scientific Breakthrough: Quantum Supremacy, Discovery of gravitational waves, Exoplanet discoveries.
Potential Technologies: Quantum computers for advanced simulations, enhanced telescopes for deeper cosmic understanding.
Autonomy:
Scientific Breakthrough: AI and robotics.
Potential Technologies: Personal AI assistants, autonomous vehicles, robotic aides for the elderly or differently-abled.
Aesthetic Needs:
Scientific Breakthrough: AI in art and music generation, Virtual and Augmented Reality.
Potential Technologies: AI-driven art and music creation tools, immersive VR art galleries and concerts.
Transcendence:
Scientific Breakthrough: Neuroscience, Therapeutic use of psychedelics.
Potential Technologies: Neuromodulation tools for transcendental meditation, guided therapeutic sessions using psychedelics for spiritual experiences.
We should always ask ourselves, does the technology fulfil a deep human desire. If it doesn’t we should not build it or use it.